دانشجویان مدیریت دولتی(90) دانشگاه سمنان
یاد روزای با هم بودن به خیر، برای همه اتون عاقبت به خیری آرزو میکنم بچه ها
به رغم تحولات شگرف چند دهه اخیر در عرصه اقتصاد كلان،‏ كما كان تأثیر و جهت اثرگذاری سیاست های پولی وارزی بر بخش واقعی اقتصاد مورد اختلاف نظر اندیشمندان وصاحب نظران اقتصادی است. این مقاله با بهره گیری ازیك الگوی اقتصاد سنجی كلان تدوین شده به روش نوین هجعیِ،‏ اثر گذاری سیاست های پولی وارزی را بر اقتصاد ایران بررسی كرده است.
آثار ناشی از اجرای یك سیاست پولی از طریق متغیر ابزار سیاستگذاری نرخ سپرده قانونی و همچنین بدهی بانك ها به بانك مركزی به كمك الگو شبیه سازی شده است. نتایج حاكی از آن است كه سیاست های پولی در اقتصاد ایران به نحو بارزی تأثیر می گذارد. یك سیاست پولی انبساطی موجب می شود تا از یك سو تولید كل افزایش یابد كه موجد اشتغال است و از سوی دیگر،‏ مصرف بخش خصوصی،‏ سرمایه گذاری بخش خصوصی،‏ صادرات غیر نفتی و واردات افزایش پیدا كند كه باعث رفاه و رونق اقتصادی خواهد شد.
اثر اجرای سیاست ارزی از طریق تغییر در نرخ ارز اسمی رسمی ارزیابی خواهد شد. نتایج حاصل از شبیه سازی پویای الگو موید آن است كه تنزل ارزش پول ملی (افزایش نرخ برابری ارز) موجب كاهش واردات و تولید ناخالص داخلی شده و بر خلاف انتظار اثر محسوسی بر صادرات غیرنفتی ندارد. این سیاست از طریق بسط عرضه پول اسمی سطح عمومی قیمت ها را افزایش داده و شرایط تورم ركوردی را بر جامعه حاكم می كند.
فایل مقاله : دانلود






نوع مطلب : مقالات، 
برچسب ها : سیاست پولی، سیاست نرخ ارز، بررسی تاثیر سیاست های پولی و ارزی بر اقتصاد ایران، اقتصاد ایران،
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